Potentially decisive weekend for Lions

This is the final weekend of Super Rugby before the South African Conference adjourns for a month and it will go a long way towards deciding what the teams have to play for when they return from their June break.

For the Lions in particular this is a big weekend in the sense that they could take a massive step that will move them to the brink of securing the conference title for a third successive year, or they could find themselves going into the June recess with effectively nothing separating them from the Jaguares or the Sharks.

Although they have a seven-point lead at the top of the conference, which seems comfortable enough, and will be in reality if they still have it after this weekend, it needs to be noted that they have played one more game than both the Jaguares, currently second, and the Sharks, who are one point behind them in third.

Whoever wins in the clash between the Jaguares and the Sharks in Buenos Aires on Friday will then effectively be square with the Lions, should the Johannesburg team lose to the Stormers in Cape Town on Saturday. The gap would then be between two and five points, depending on bonus points and margins of victory/defeat, but the chasing team would have an extra game to make up those points.

The Lions haven’t had it this tight in the conference battle since they came second to the Stormers in 2015 and it will be interesting to see how they respond to the pressure. The Newlands date was always going to be a big one on their calendar once they started to drop games in Australasia, for while the Stormers have struggled this year, they are a formidable force on their home ground.

Five wins in six starts at Newlands makes their home ground more of a fortress for themselves, and more of an obstacle to visiting teams, than Kings Park is for the Sharks. The Lions of course go to Durban immediately after the break, but that only increases the need for them to beat the Stormers.

There is another reason the Lions just have to win in Cape Town and it is related to their long sequence of success against the other South African teams. You have to go back more than three years for when last they lost a derby, and when they do drop a game, it will be another chink knocked out of a psychological armoury that is starting to be tested.

If the Stormers win in Cape Town it will further embolden the Sharks when they host the Lions, not to mention the Bulls, who still have a trip to Johannesburg in their future.

Not that their fellow South African teams are the biggest threat to the Lions at present. Although the Sharks have gone to Buenos Aires in a confident mood and won in Argentina last year, it is the Jaguares who are the form team in the conference and will be aiming for a sixth straight win. The Sharks have been good against Kiwi teams this year but inconsistent in the rest of their games and they will have to be at their best to challenge the Jaguares on their home field.

The Bulls should get back on track after their mauling by the Jaguares by beating the Brumbies, so the game that is most difficult to call in the conference this week is the one at Newlands. The Lions have looked distinctly vulnerable of late and much will hinge on how much confidence they gained from their impressive last quarter of an otherwise sluggish performance against the Brumbies.

It’s a big weekend in the overall competition too, with the top dogs, the Crusaders and Hurricanes, squaring off in Christchurch on Friday morning, with the Hurricanes perhaps having a slight edge due to Crusaders injuries/absentees, while the Highlanders and Chiefs face potentially difficult games against resurgent Australian opposition that will determine how much chance there is of either of them dropping out of the top eight.

SOUTH AFRICAN CONFERENCE

Jaguares v Cell C Sharks (Buenos Aires, Friday 9.40pm)

Some of the best Sharks performances of the last few years have been forthcoming at difficult away venues overseas, and last year’s close win at the Stade Amalfi was one of those. Ruan Botha’s men will need to be on point though, for as their coach Robert du Preez put it, if you don’t man up against the Jaguares in their current form, you will be in for a long evening. It won’t be as one-sided as the Bulls game, but the hosts start as clear favourites. For the Sharks the chances of success depend on how good their kicking game is as they go out to implement their successful template of going for broke on attack when in the right areas of the field. Du Preez was happy with the exiting against the Chiefs but not against the Bulls before that.

Prediction: Jaguares by 7.

Vodacom Bulls v Waratahs (Pretoria, Saturday 3.05pm)

Bulls coach John Mitchell was both blunt and honest about his team’s performance in Buenos Aires. Were there any positives? No, he answered, there were none. There were doubtless some strong words spoken behind closed doors this week and it is going to be interesting to see how the Bulls respond. If they don’t beat the Brumbies they will be in the same position as the Stormers are currently. In other words, they might still have a mathematical chance of making the top eight, but it would be less than realistic.

Prediction: Bulls by 12

DHL Stormers v Emirates Lions (Cape Town, Saturday 5.15pm)

Centre JJ Engelbrecht had an interesting answer to the question about the dent to the confidence that the Stormers should have sustained in their loss to the Jaguares – in his view, it had no impact on their confidence whatsoever. If that is the case, the Lions could be in trouble in this game as the Stormers tend to be up for games at Newlands and have a pack that can hurt the Lions’ unit. It could all come down to who starts stronger. The Stormers gave the Lions energy when they made the mistakes that saw them fall 19-0 in no time at all in the first-round game, and their intention is to reverse that this time. Sound familiar? That was also their aim when they played the Bulls in their return fixture after a loss at Loftus. They got that quest right against the Bulls and could well do so again. However, when a team has made a habit of beating fellow South African teams over a period of three years, you don’t bet against them unless the opposition are in red-hot form, which the Stormers aren’t.

Prediction: Lions to retain record against SA teams by narrowest of margins.

AUSTRALASIAN CONFERENCE

Crusaders v Hurricanes (Christchurch, Friday 9.35am)
Prediction: Hurricanes by less than 7.

Rebels v Sunwolves (Melbourne, Friday 11.45am)
Prediction: Rebels by 15

Chiefs v Waratahs (Hamilton, Saturday 9.35am)
Prediction: Chiefs by less than 9

Reds v Highlanders (Brisbane, Saturday 11.45am)
Prediction: Highlanders by 10

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