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Britain’s decision to leave the EU has led to a “dramatic deterioration” in economic activity, not seen since the aftermath of the financial crisis.
Data from IHS Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index, or PMI, shows a fall to 47.7 in July, the lowest level since April in 2009. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.
Both manufacturing and service sectors saw a decline in output and orders.
However, exports picked up, driven by the weakening of the pound.
The report surveyed more than 650 services companies, from sectors including transport, business services, computing and restaurants.
It asked them: “Is the level of business activity at your company higher, the same or lower than one month ago?”
It also asked manufacturers whether production had gone up or down.
The PMI is the first significant set of data measuring business reaction to the result of the UK referendum.
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‘Record slump’
Chris Williamson, chief economist at IHS Markit, said the downturn had been “most commonly attributed in one way or another to ‘Brexit’.”
He added that the economy could contract by 0.4% in the third quarter of this year, but that would depend on whether the current slump continued.
“The only other times we have seen this index fall to these low levels, was the global financial crisis in 2008/9, the bursting of the dot com bubble, and the 1998 Asian financial crisis,” Mr Williamson told the BBC.
“The difference this time is that it is entirely home-grown, which suggest the impact could be greater on the UK economy than before.
“This is exactly what most economists were saying would happen.”
A subset of the PMI figures, shows that service companies, such as insurance or advertising, are feeling less positive about the future than at any time since the height of the recession.
Analysis: Andrew Walker, BBC World Service economics correspondent
The figures in PMI surveys are taken seriously by economists as early warning signs of what is in the pipeline. When there is a downturn, the PMIs generally tell the same story.
So this is a troubling set of results. But it is just one month’s worth. It is possible that this is a “shock-induced nadir”, as the chief economist at the firm who conducted the survey put it, and that the economy will right itself in the coming months.
In addition, the financial markets have stabilised and in some areas rebounded, in an adjustment after the vote that was described by the IMF as severe but generally orderly.
That said, the survey results do increase the chances of some action from the Bank of England, perhaps an interest rate cut in August, or perhaps even some additional spending plans in the chancellor’s Autumn Statement.
‘Heading for recession’
Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the figures provided the “first major evidence that the UK is entering a sharp downturn”.
Although he added that the “confidence shock from the Leave vote might wear off over the coming months”.
BBC